Today, the Feds came out with a worst case scenario for a future influenza pandemic. The 229-page report stated that up to 40% of the work force would be immobilized either due to the flu, its complications, or family members taking time off to care for sick ones. Ultimately, the disease could be responsible for two million deaths.
Who writes this stuff? Did they arrive at this scenario by the BOGSAT (bunch of guys/gals sitting around at a table) method? Or did they hire a Hollywood script writer?
The point here is that the only actual experience anybody has to about flu pandemics is the Spanish Flu of 1918-19, and three lesser episodes. No doubt, Spanish Flu was a nasty one. The other three resulted in higher than usual mortality rates, but nothing that created much of a disruption. The current scenario is essentially pure fiction. It might make for a half-way decent scary movie on TV, but it isn't based on any reliable data. Unfortunately, this is all the Feds have to go on is a fictional scenario in order to make some plans. All of us in the public health arena are constantly reminded to hurry up and plan for the big one. Since no one really knows what it looks like, we spend a lot of time running around in circles.
While we are out planning for the totally unknown, ponder this: while no one in the U.S. dies of bird flu, 700,000 folks die of heart disease. And 65,000 die from the old fashioned influenza a pneumonia. Other than flu shots, not nearly as many resources are going in to combat the known causes of disease, which just about everything from smoking to being hit by a meteorite comes before bird flu.
What scares you the most, preparing for fictional scenarios or ignoring the current state of disease?
Kudos for telling it like it is!!! The past five years has seen the same hysteria and misallocation of funding away from those public and personal health issues that we know for sure exist. Planning for potential public health emergencies is important but as Jim eludes the scope and level of planning needs to be equal to the probability of the emergency actually happening. That probability assessment needs to be based on the facts that we know and not on conjecture or pandering to the crowd, the media or for political gain. I applaud Jim on having the courage to swim against the flow of the current avian flu propaganda.
Posted by: Chris | September 19, 2006 at 07:22 AM